Kayseri Province
Forecasting Monthly Residential Natural Gas Demand Using Just-In-Time-Learning Modeling
Alakent, Burak, Isikli, Erkan, Kadaifci, Cigdem, Taspinar, Tonguc S.
ABSTRACT Natural gas (NG) is relatively a clean source of energy, particularly compared to fossil fuels, and worldwide consumption of NG has been increasing almost linearly in the last two decades. A similar trend can also be seen in Turkey, while another similarity is the high dependence on impor ts for the continuous NG supply. It is crucial to accurately forecast future NG demand (NGD) in Turkey, especially, for import contracts; in this respect, forecasts of monthly NGD for the following year are of utmost importance. In the current study, the h istorical monthly NG consumption data between 2014 and 2024 provided by SOCAR, the local residential NG distribution company for two cities in Turkey, Bursa and Kayseri, was used to determine out - of - sample monthly NGD forecasts for a period of one year and nine months using various time series models, including SARIMA and ETS models, and a novel proposed machine learning method. The proposed method, named Just - in - Time - Learning - Gaussia n Process Regression (JITL - GPR), uses a novel feature representation for t he past NG demand values; instead of using past demand values as column - wise separate features, they are placed on a two - dimensional (2 - D) grid of year - month values. For each test point, a kernel function, tailored for the NGD predictions, is used in GPR t o predict the query point. Since a model is constructed separately for each test point, the proposed method is, indeed, an example of JITL. The JITL - GPR method is easy to use and optimize, and offers a reduction in forecast errors compared to traditional t ime series methods and a state - of - the - art combinat ion model; therefore, it is a promising tool for NGD forecasting in similar settings. INTRODUCTION In the last few decades, there has been a shift in energy sources from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, such as wind and solar energy, mainly due to environmental concerns and related government regulations . However, these latter sources are depend ent on w eather conditions and require integration with grid technologies for continuous power generation. Natural gas (NG), typically, consists of (up to) ~95% of methane and 2 - 2.5% ethane - hexane+, with the remain der consist ing of nitrogen, CO NG p ower plants are easy to build and highly reliable, mak ing them invaluable for "clean" energy production. On the other hand, m ost countries depend on imports to maintain t heir NG supplies, and there is a delicate balance between import s and domestic demand . S toring excess import ed gas above actual demand is difficult and would result in economic losses, while import ing less than actual demand could result in a nationwide sh ortage.
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- Asia > Azerbaijan (0.49)
- Asia > Middle East > Republic of Türkiye > Kayseri Province > Kayseri (0.26)
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- Energy > Oil & Gas > Midstream (1.00)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Downstream (0.84)
- Energy > Renewable > Solar (0.74)
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning > Regression (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks (0.94)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty (0.67)
Scalable Temporal Anomaly Causality Discovery in Large Systems: Achieving Computational Efficiency with Binary Anomaly Flag Data
Asres, Mulugeta Weldezgina, Omlin, Christian Walter, Collaboration, The CMS-HCAL
Extracting anomaly causality facilitates diagnostics once monitoring systems detect system faults. Identifying anomaly causes in large systems involves investigating a more extensive set of monitoring variables across multiple subsystems. However, learning causal graphs comes with a significant computational burden that restrains the applicability of most existing methods in real-time and large-scale deployments. In addition, modern monitoring applications for large systems often generate large amounts of binary alarm flags, and the distinct characteristics of binary anomaly data -- the meaning of state transition and data sparsity -- challenge existing causality learning mechanisms. This study proposes an anomaly causal discovery approach (AnomalyCD), addressing the accuracy and computational challenges of generating causal graphs from binary flag data sets. The AnomalyCD framework presents several strategies, such as anomaly flag characteristics incorporating causality testing, sparse data and link compression, and edge pruning adjustment approaches. We validate the performance of this framework on two datasets: monitoring sensor data of the readout-box system of the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at CERN, and a public data set for information technology monitoring. The results demonstrate the considerable reduction of the computation overhead and moderate enhancement of the accuracy of temporal causal discovery on binary anomaly data sets.
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Residual Vision Transformer (ResViT) Based Self-Supervised Learning Model for Brain Tumor Classification
Karagoz, Meryem Altin, Nalbantoglu, O. Ufuk, Fox, Geoffrey C.
Deep learning has proven very promising for interpreting MRI in brain tumor diagnosis. However, deep learning models suffer from a scarcity of brain MRI datasets for effective training. Self-supervised learning (SSL) models provide data-efficient and remarkable solutions to limited dataset problems. Therefore, this paper introduces a generative SSL model for brain tumor classification in two stages. The first stage is designed to pre-train a Residual Vision Transformer (ResViT) model for MRI synthesis as a pretext task. The second stage includes fine-tuning a ResViT-based classifier model as a downstream task. Accordingly, we aim to leverage local features via CNN and global features via ViT, employing a hybrid CNN-transformer architecture for ResViT in pretext and downstream tasks. Moreover, synthetic MRI images are utilized to balance the training set. The proposed model performs on public BraTs 2023, Figshare, and Kaggle datasets. Furthermore, we compare the proposed model with various deep learning models, including A-UNet, ResNet-9, pix2pix, pGAN for MRI synthesis, and ConvNeXtTiny, ResNet101, DenseNet12, Residual CNN, ViT for classification. According to the results, the proposed model pretraining on the MRI dataset is superior compared to the pretraining on the ImageNet dataset. Overall, the proposed model attains the highest accuracy, achieving 90.56% on the BraTs dataset with T1 sequence, 98.53% on the Figshare, and 98.47% on the Kaggle brain tumor datasets. As a result, the proposed model demonstrates a robust, effective, and successful approach to handling insufficient dataset challenges in MRI analysis by incorporating SSL, fine-tuning, data augmentation, and combining CNN and ViT.
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- Europe > Switzerland (0.04)
- Europe > Netherlands > North Holland > Amsterdam (0.04)
- Asia > Middle East > Republic of Türkiye > Kayseri Province > Kayseri (0.04)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Diagnostic Medicine > Imaging (0.96)
Call Me When Necessary: LLMs can Efficiently and Faithfully Reason over Structured Environments
Cheng, Sitao, Zhuang, Ziyuan, Xu, Yong, Yang, Fangkai, Zhang, Chaoyun, Qin, Xiaoting, Huang, Xiang, Chen, Ling, Lin, Qingwei, Zhang, Dongmei, Rajmohan, Saravan, Zhang, Qi
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown potential in reasoning over structured environments, e.g., knowledge graph and table. Such tasks typically require multi-hop reasoning, i.e., match natural language utterance with instances in the environment. Previous methods leverage LLMs to incrementally build a reasoning path, where the LLMs either invoke tools or pick up schemas by step-by-step interacting with the environment. We propose Reasoning-Path-Editing (Readi), a novel framework where LLMs can efficiently and faithfully reason over structured environments. In Readi, LLMs initially generate a reasoning path given a query, and edit the path only when necessary. We instantiate the path on structured environments and provide feedback to edit the path if anything goes wrong. Experimental results on three KGQA and two TableQA datasets show the effectiveness of Readi, significantly surpassing previous LLM-based methods (by 9.1% Hit@1 on WebQSP, 12.4% on MQA-3H and 9.5% on WTQ), comparable with state-of-the-art fine-tuned methods (67% on CWQ and 74.7% on WebQSP) and substantially boosting the vanilla LLMs (by 14.9% on CWQ). Our code will be available on https://aka.ms/readi.
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NEUROSEC: FPGA-Based Neuromorphic Audio Security
Isik, Murat, Vishwamith, Hiruna, Sur, Yusuf, Inadagbo, Kayode, Dikmen, I. Can
Neuromorphic systems, inspired by the complexity and functionality of the human brain, have gained interest in academic and industrial attention due to their unparalleled potential across a wide range of applications. While their capabilities herald innovation, it is imperative to underscore that these computational paradigms, analogous to their traditional counterparts, are not impervious to security threats. Although the exploration of neuromorphic methodologies for image and video processing has been rigorously pursued, the realm of neuromorphic audio processing remains in its early stages. Our results highlight the robustness and precision of our FPGA-based neuromorphic system. Specifically, our system showcases a commendable balance between desired signal and background noise, efficient spike rate encoding, and unparalleled resilience against adversarial attacks such as FGSM and PGD. A standout feature of our framework is its detection rate of 94%, which, when compared to other methodologies, underscores its greater capability in identifying and mitigating threats within 5.39 dB, a commendable SNR ratio. Furthermore, neuromorphic computing and hardware security serve many sensor domains in mission-critical and privacy-preserving applications.
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- North America > United States > Pennsylvania > Philadelphia County > Philadelphia (0.04)
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Multi-Agent Context Learning Strategy for Interference-Aware Beam Allocation in mmWave Vehicular Communications
Kose, Abdulkadir, Lee, Haeyoung, Foh, Chuan Heng, Shojafar, Mohammad
Millimeter wave (mmWave) has been recognized as one of key technologies for 5G and beyond networks due to its potential to enhance channel bandwidth and network capacity. The use of mmWave for various applications including vehicular communications has been extensively discussed. However, applying mmWave to vehicular communications faces challenges of high mobility nodes and narrow coverage along the mmWave beams. Due to high mobility in dense networks, overlapping beams can cause strong interference which leads to performance degradation. As a remedy, beam switching capability in mmWave can be utilized. Then, frequent beam switching and cell change become inevitable to manage interference, which increase computational and signalling complexity. In order to deal with the complexity in interference control, we develop a new strategy called Multi-Agent Context Learning (MACOL), which utilizes Contextual Bandit to manage interference while allocating mmWave beams to serve vehicles in the network. Our approach demonstrates that by leveraging knowledge of neighbouring beam status, the machine learning agent can identify and avoid potential interfering transmissions to other ongoing transmissions. Furthermore, we show that even under heavy traffic loads, our proposed MACOL strategy is able to maintain low interference levels at around 10%.
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- Transportation > Ground > Road (0.67)
- Automobiles & Trucks (0.67)
Harnessing FPGA Technology for Enhanced Biomedical Computation
Alici, Nisanur, Inadagbo, Kayode, Isik, Murat
This research delves into sophisticated neural network frameworks like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs), and Deep Belief Networks (DBNs) for improved analysis of ECG signals via Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). The MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database serves as the foundation for training and evaluating our models, with added Gaussian noise to heighten the algorithms' resilience. The developed architectures incorporate various layers for specific processing and categorization functions, employing strategies such as the EarlyStopping callback and Dropout layer to prevent overfitting. Additionally, this paper details the creation of a tailored Tensor Compute Unit (TCU) accelerator for the PYNQ Z1 platform. It provides a thorough methodology for implementing FPGA-based machine learning, encompassing the configuration of the Tensil toolchain in Docker, selection of architectures, PS-PL configuration, and the compilation and deployment of models. By evaluating performance indicators like latency and throughput, we showcase the efficacy of FPGAs in advanced biomedical computing. This study ultimately serves as a comprehensive guide to optimizing neural network operations on FPGAs across various fields.
- Asia > Singapore (0.04)
- North America > United States > Texas > Waller County > Prairie View (0.04)
- North America > United States > Pennsylvania > Philadelphia County > Philadelphia (0.04)
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Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection with Graph Networks for Data Quality Monitoring of the Hadron Calorimeter
Asres, Mulugeta Weldezgina, Omlin, Christian Walter, Wang, Long, Yu, David, Parygin, Pavel, Dittmann, Jay, Karapostoli, Georgia, Seidel, Markus, Venditti, Rosamaria, Lambrecht, Luka, Usai, Emanuele, Ahmad, Muhammad, Menendez, Javier Fernandez, Maeshima, Kaori, Collaboration, the CMS-HCAL
The compact muon solenoid (CMS) experiment is a general-purpose detector for high-energy collision at the large hadron collider (LHC) at CERN. It employs an online data quality monitoring (DQM) system to promptly spot and diagnose particle data acquisition problems to avoid data quality loss. In this study, we present semi-supervised spatio-temporal anomaly detection (AD) monitoring for the physics particle reading channels of the hadronic calorimeter (HCAL) of the CMS using three-dimensional digi-occupancy map data of the DQM. We propose the GraphSTAD system, which employs convolutional and graph neural networks to learn local spatial characteristics induced by particles traversing the detector, and global behavior owing to shared backend circuit connections and housing boxes of the channels, respectively. Recurrent neural networks capture the temporal evolution of the extracted spatial features. We have validated the accuracy of the proposed AD system in capturing diverse channel fault types using the LHC Run-2 collision data sets. The GraphSTAD system has achieved production-level accuracy and is being integrated into the CMS core production system--for real-time monitoring of the HCAL. We have also provided a quantitative performance comparison with alternative benchmark models to demonstrate the promising leverage of the presented system.
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- North America > United States > Maryland > Prince George's County > College Park (0.14)
- North America > United States > California > Riverside County > Riverside (0.14)
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Exploiting FPGA Capabilities for Accelerated Biomedical Computing
Inadagbo, Kayode, Arig, Baran, Alici, Nisanur, Isik, Murat
This study presents advanced neural network architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs), and Deep Belief Networks (DBNs) for enhanced ECG signal analysis using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). We utilize the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database for training and validation, introducing Gaussian noise to improve algorithm robustness. The implemented models feature various layers for distinct processing and classification tasks and techniques like EarlyStopping callback and Dropout layer are used to mitigate overfitting. Our work also explores the development of a custom Tensor Compute Unit (TCU) accelerator for the PYNQ Z1 board, offering comprehensive steps for FPGA-based machine learning, including setting up the Tensil toolchain in Docker, selecting architecture, configuring PS-PL, and compiling and executing models. Performance metrics such as latency and throughput are calculated for practical insights, demonstrating the potential of FPGAs in high-performance biomedical computing. The study ultimately offers a guide for optimizing neural network performance on FPGAs for various applications.
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- North America > United States > Texas > Waller County > Prairie View (0.04)
- Asia > Middle East > Republic of Türkiye > Kayseri Province > Kayseri (0.04)
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Inflammatory Bowel Disease Biomarkers of Human Gut Microbiota Selected via Ensemble Feature Selection Methods
Hacilar, Hilal, Nalbantoglu, O. Ufuk, Aran, Oya, Bakir-Gungor, Burcu
The tremendous boost in the next generation sequencing and in the omics technologies makes it possible to characterize human gut microbiome (the collective genomes of the microbial community that reside in our gastrointestinal tract). While some of these microorganisms are considered as essential regulators of our immune system, some others can cause several diseases such as Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD), diabetes, and cancer. IBD, is a gut related disorder where the deviations from the healthy gut microbiome are considered to be associated with IBD. Although existing studies attempt to unveal the composition of the gut microbiome in relation to IBD diseases, a comprehensive picture is far from being complete. Due to the complexity of metagenomic studies, the applications of the state of the art machine learning techniques became popular to address a wide range of questions in the field of metagenomic data analysis. In this regard, using IBD associated metagenomics dataset, this study utilizes both supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms, i) to generate a classification model that aids IBD diagnosis, ii) to discover IBD associated biomarkers, iii) to find subgroups of IBD patients using k means and hierarchical clustering. To deal with the high dimensionality of features, we applied robust feature selection algorithms such as Conditional Mutual Information Maximization (CMIM), Fast Correlation Based Filter (FCBF), min redundancy max relevance (mRMR) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). In our experiments with 10 fold cross validation, XGBoost had a considerable effect in terms of minimizing the microbiota used for the diagnosis of IBD and thus reducing the cost and time. We observed that compared to the single classifiers, ensemble methods such as kNN and logitboost resulted in better performance measures for the classification of IBD.
- Asia > Philippines > Luzon > National Capital Region > City of Manila (0.14)
- Asia > Middle East > Republic of Türkiye > Kayseri Province > Kayseri (0.04)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Infections and Infectious Diseases (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Hepatology (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Gastroenterology (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Endocrinology > Diabetes (0.35)